沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究述评

对风暴潮灾害形成机理、风暴潮灾害风险评估方法、灾害风险区划与等级评估、灾害损失评估等方面进行了梳理和分析,认为:①风暴潮灾害风险评估指标体系目前多为主要社会因子和经济损失因子,而忽视主要气象水文指标(最大增水、中心风速等)对风暴潮灾害的影响,研究发现,最大增水和风暴潮灾害呈正相关关系;可通过主成分分析等相关数学模型提取指标因子,避免指标选取主观随意性,又能够客观的确定指标因子的权重;②应建立统一的风暴潮灾害风险评估综合指标;提出建立灾害熵综合风险评估方法,定量的反映所研究区域灾害损失整体水平,灾害熵值也可作为划分灾害等级的分级量度。     

Cadmium tolerance in six poplar species

Selection of poplar species with greater Cd tolerance and exploiting the physiological mechanisms involved in Cd tolerance are crucial for application of these species to phyto-remediation. The aim of this study is to investigate variation in Cd tolerance among the six poplar species and its underlying physiological mechanisms. Cuttings of six Populus species were cultivated for 10 weeks before exposure to either 0 or 200 μM CdSO₄ for 20 days. Gas exchange in mature leaves was determined by a portable photosynthesis system. Cd concentrations in tissues were analyzed by a flame atomic absorbance spectrometry. Subsequently, Cd amount per plant, bio-concentration factor (BCF) and translocation factor (T _f) were calculated. Nonenzymatic compounds and activities of antioxidative enzymes in tissues were analyzed spectrophotometrically. Cd exposure caused decline in photosynthesis in four poplar species including Populus cathayana (zhonghua 1). Among the six species, P. cathayana (zhonghua 1) displayed the highest Cd concentrations in tissues, the largest Cd amount in aerial parts, the highest BCF in aerial parts and T _f under Cd exposure. Under Cd stress, increases in total soluble sugars in roots but decreases in starch in roots, wood, and leaves of P. cathayana (zhonghua 1) were found. Induced O ₂ ^?? and H₂O₂ production in roots and leaves, and increases in free proline, soluble phenolics, and activities of antioxidative enzymes were observed in P. cathayana (zhonghua 1). Based on results of this pot experiment, it is concluded that P. cathayana (zhonghua 1) is superior to other five species for Cd phyto-remediation, and its well-coordinated physiological changes under Cd exposure confer the great Cd tolerance of this species.     

Suppression of precipitation by dust particles originated in the Tibetan Plateau

Dust aerosols play an important role in modulating the hydrologic cycle. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is little polluted by human activities as an ideal site to study the effect of dust aerosol on precipitation. In this study, observational data of dust storms and precipitation in the TP and its vicinities as well as CALIPSO satellite data were used to analyze the distributions and vertical structure of dust storms on the plateau. The results showed that dust storms occur with high frequency and raise dust particles into the troposphere from ground level to a height of 5–9 km to modulate the hydrologic cycle in the TP. There are significant negative correlations between dust aerosol and precipitation in the dust source regions during the period of both 40 and 200 years. It is found that the role of precipitation in suppressing dust storms could be unimportant, while dust aerosol may play an important role in suppressing precipitation in the hinterland of the TP. Our study provides a potential approach to better understand the climate changes in the TP.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

选择性催化还原烟气脱硝技术在玉环电厂4×1000MW机组上的应用

以华能玉环电厂4×1000MW机组增设烟气选择性催化还原法（SCR）脱硝装置的技术改造为例，简要介绍了玉环电厂原机组增加SCR脱硝系统的工艺构成和流程特点、设计参数、总体布置，并对该工程中相关设备的改造进行了描述，为我国大型燃煤机组的脱硝改造工程提供参考。     

双负载双金属催化剂催化有机卤化物水相脱卤研究

通过把起相转移作用的聚乙二醇链固载在硅胶上（SiO2-PEG600），再将聚乙稀吡咯烷酮（PVP）络合双金属Pd-Cu(PVP-PdCl2-CuCl2)后负载其中，制成一种新型双负载双金属水相脱卤催化剂PVP－PdCl2-CuCl2/SiO2-PEG600。以甲酸钠为氢转移试制，在水相中催化有机卤化物脱卤，研究结果表明：反应温度为800℃，Pd∶Cu=2∶1（摩尔比），反应介质pH≈11.7左右时，该催化剂对芳香氯化物及α－氯代酮、酯具有良好的催化脱氯和重复使用性能。     

Effects of adsorption onto silica sand particles on the hydrolysis of tetracycline antibiotics

Due to high usage of tetracycline antibiotics, concerns have been raised about their environmental fate. In this study, potential changes in the pseudo-first-order hydrolysis rate constants for three tetracyclines, tetracycline (TC), oxytetracycline (OTC) and chlortetracycline (CTC), were evaluated by measuring the rate constants in batch and column leaching experiments. The first-order hydrolysis rate constants were measured at pH 5, 7, and 9 using batch tests. The values were highest at pH 7 for all three tetracyclines (0.0030 ± 0.0004, 0.0042 ± 0.0001, and 0.0323 ± 0.0003 h(-1) for TC, OTC, and CTC, respectively), indicating relatively short environmental half-lives of tetracyclines. Interestingly, it was found that the rates of degradation of the parent tetracyclines were much faster when silica sand was present in a batch solution or when the solution was passed through a silica column. For example, the ratios of the first-order degradation rate constants obtained in the column experiments to those in batch experiments were 13.2, 2.1, and 2.0 for TC, OTC, and CTC at a volumetric flow rate of 0.08 mL h(-1), with an observed tendency for this ratio to increase with an increased flow rate. This indicates that the silica surface may serve as a catalyst for hydrolysis and that the actual environmental half-lives of tetracycline antibiotics could be shorter than those estimated from laboratory hydrolysis rate constants using the standard batch protocol. Furthermore, the toxicity of the column effluent containing hydrolysis metabolites was assessed using bioluminescence inhibition in Vibrio fischeri. It was estimated that the toxicity of the metabolites of CTC was lower than that of their parent compound, whereas the toxicity of metabolites of TC and OTC was as high as or higher than that of their parent compounds.     

城市自来水中挥发性有机氯污染物检测及健康风险评价初步研究

水质安全是饮用水安全的重中之重,直接关系到人体健康。采用健康风险评价模式,对某市饮用水进行了分析和评价。研究结果表明,该市通过饮水途径引起的非致癌健康风险中四氯化碳最大,三氯甲烷次之,两者风险水平在10-5～10-6,远低于美国环境保护署推荐的最大可接受风险水平。通过饮水途径所致健康风险中,四氯乙烯所引起的致癌风险最大(1.2×10-8),但远远低于美国环境保护署推荐的通过饮水途径最大可接受风险水平(5×10-5)。根据美国环境保护署的推荐值,初步认为目前该市饮用水中挥发性有机污染物不会对人体产生明显的健康危害。     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.